Minimum wage, maximum pressure - Assessing short-term impacts and long-term plans for the UK’s wage floor

The minimum wage has been a huge success story since its introduction in 1999 – but 2025 might be its trickiest year yet. The combination of increases to employer National Insurance and a bigger-than-expected 6.7 per cent rise in the National Living Wage has left businesses warning of jobs cuts and hiring freezes. Previous such warnings haven’t materialised, but with the jobs market already in recession territory, might this year be different? It is amidst this uncertainty and challenging backdrop that the Government will need set out a longer-term plan for the minimum wage.