Resolution Foundation Podcast

Into calmer waters? Assessing Budget 2023

The UK has gone through four Chancellors, three Prime Ministers and entered a cost-of-living crisis in 500 days since the last Budget way back in October 2021. On 15 March, Jeremy Hunt will unveil his first Budget, hoping to signpost the UK economy’s way towards a new, calmer, phase of lower inflation and higher growth. To that end, concrete steps to encourage people to remain in the workforce and firms to invest will be up in lights. Recent months have brought good news for the public finances, but the public face the prospect of rising energy bills and inflation that will continue to outstrip wage growth for some time to come.
How has recent good news, from falling European gas prices to lower than expected borrowing, fed through into permanent improvements to the economic and fiscal outlook? Where does Budget 2023 leave the cost-of-living crisis families are facing, including rising energy bills and widespread industrial strife across the public sector? Will the policies announced help to boost employment or investment – and therefore growth? And what does Budget 2023 tell us about the economic battleground that the next General Election will be fought over?
The morning after the Spring Budget, the Resolution Foundation is hosting an event to discuss these issues and more. Following a presentation from Foundation staff of their overnight analysis of the Budget, we will hear from the chairs of both the Treasury Select Committee and the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Read the report: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/were-going-on-a-growth-hunt/ 
View the event slides: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/into-calmer-waters/ 

A cost-of-living crisis: Inflation during an unprecedented terms of trade shock

Speech by MPC member Swati Dhingra
Britain has been buffeted by many different economic shocks in recent decades, but the most recent is a huge terms of trade deterioration following a spike in energy prices and disruption to global supply chains in the wake of the pandemic. This has given the UK the highest inflation in 40 years and prompted a cost-of-living crisis for British households.
How should policy makers think about the damaging impact of inflation on families and firms, responding without deepening any resulting economic downturn? And what are the trade-offs that monetary policy makers face in addressing the exceptional cost-of-living crisis that Britain is living through now?
To debate and answer these questions, the Resolution Foundation is hosting the first public discussion from Bank of England MPC member Dr. Swati Dhingra, as part of The Economy 2030 Inquiry with the LSE, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. Following a short presentation, Swati will take part in an audience Q&A, chaired by RF Chief Executive Torsten Bell.
View the event slides here: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/a-cost-of-living-crisis/ 

Back to basics Budget? What Jeremy Hunt’s March Budget has in store

2022 marked a tough year, with soaring inflation sparking a cost-of-living crisis and repeated government announcements to tackle it. And that was before the Autumn economic policy chaos. The economics and politics are now calmer. Inflation – and most importantly gas prices – is falling, and the Chancellor hopes to deliver a more ‘normal’ Budget against this backdrop on 15th March. But it may not feel like the good times have arrived for households, with energy bills set to rise in April and the country living with the impact of 15 years of relative economic decline.
How ‘normal’ will Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget be after the very abnormal Autumn? Has the economic and fiscal outlook changed significantly as gas prices have fallen back? What else will the Chancellor do to protect households from the continuing cost-of-living crisis? And can the Chancellor address some of the big challenges facing the UK, from recent rises in labour market inactivity to the longer lasting growth slowdown?
In the week ahead of the Spring Budget, the Resolution Foundation is hosting an event to discuss these issues. Following a presentation on the economic outlook, we will hear from leading experts on what the Budget may have in store.
Read the report: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/new-budget-same-problems/ 
View the event slides: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/back-to-basics-budget/ 

The results of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the transmission of monetary policy

Central bankers around the world have been busy raising interest rates from their historical lows in the face of mounting inflation, with the Bank of England raising the base rate at their last ten MPC meetings. But the big question for policy makers is not just what the impact of those rate rises has been, but what it will be. That lies behind the difficult judgement about whether enough has been done to bring inflation back down to target, which has big implications for living standards and the wider economy.
How big and how swift will the impact of interest rate rises be? Has the long duration of near zero bank rates, along with the recent shocks, changed the received wisdom that rates take 18-24 months to have their full effect?  And, if a slower transmission means a longer period of above target inflation, does this affect inflation expectations?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting a major speech from Bank of England MPC member Dr. Catherine L Mann to debate and answer these questions. Following her speech, Catherine will take part in an audience Q&A, chaired by RF Chief Executive Torsten Bell.
View the event slides here: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/the-results-of-rising-rates/ 

Getting Britain working: How to boost workforce participation in the 2020s

Fast rising participation in the workforce was an important driver of growth in the 2010s, helping to offset the impacts of a productivity and wage stagnation. But that progress has gone into reverse in the wake of the pandemic, with older workers in particular exiting the workforce, prompting the government to launch a major review. This trend brings challenges for the economy and public finances, though for individuals and families the story is far more nuanced. There are ‘good’ and ‘bad’ reasons to stop working.
Who is exiting the workforce, and why are they doing so now? Is this a temporary post-pandemic blip or a sign of things to come as Britain’s population ages rapidly in the 2020s? How much should government focus on bringing people back into the labour market who dropped out during the pandemic? Or should it focus its efforts instead on groups – such as mothers, and people with disabilities – who have always been under-represented in the workforce?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an in-person and interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from major new Resolution Foundation research on economic inactivity, we will hear from leading experts about how Britain can boost the size of its workforce in the 2020s.
Read the report here: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/post-pandemic-participation/ 
View the event slides: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/getting-britain-working/ 

Saving capitalism, rescuing democracy: Book launch for The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism by Martin Wolf

Recent decades have not been kind to liberal democracy. Growth has slowed, inequality risen. Powerful voices argue that capitalism is better without democracy, while others argue that democracy is better without capitalism. But despite the travails of democratic capitalism this system brings substantial benefits. Turning the tide on populism requires both reflecting on these advantages and facing up to its failings.
What are the benefits of combining democracy and capitalism? Why have other systems become increasingly popular in recent years? Could a divorce between the two solve the problems we face? Or how can the tension-fuelled marriage between the two successfully endure?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an event to mark the publication of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism by Martin Wolf, as part of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. Joining Martin to debate our economic and political future will be leading expert on the global economy, Professor Ngaire Woods.
Watch the event here: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/saving-capitalism-rescuing-democracy/ 

Do we care about carers? The experiences of social care workers

We apologise that the start of this event has been cut off on our recording.
Social care is a large and important part of the UK economy, and will be a growing one with an ageing population and rising ill-health. But it is often also a lower paid one, with funding challenges, staff shortages and a history of risks around minimum wage underpayment. Workers wrestle with these challenges, alongside the benefits of a job that for many is a real vocation, with close relationships with clients and flexibility often valued.
What do workers see as the benefits and disadvantages of social care work? Which aspects of care work influence worker recruitment and retention? How successfully are workers’ rights enforced in the social care sector? And where should the priorities be for policymakers and employers looking to improve the quality of social care jobs?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an event to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the key highlights from new research on the experiences of social care workers – supported by Unbound Philanthropy and drawing on focus groups with social care workers – we will hear from leading experts on how to confront the challenges facing the social care sector.
Read the report: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/who-cares/ 
View the event slides: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/do-we-care-about-carers/ 

Saving savings? Assessing government incentives to put money aside

Savings matter. They help households cope in the face of economic shocks, take risks and plan for the future. But the UK has had a low savings rate for decades, and as a result households have entered today’s cost of living crisis with low savings levels. Policymakers have long recognised this challenge, and tried to address it with a wide range of incentives to encourage savings – from ISAs to the more recent Help to Save. But while such policies have cross party support, there is little focus on their effectiveness and on who benefits from them. This is all the more important as rising interest rates mean the cost of some incentives is going to rise substantially.
What is the state of peoples’ savings? How many different ways does government try to incentivise households to save? Who benefits from those policies? And how can policy better support people to save for a rainy day?
To mark the launch of new research exploring government incentives for saving in the UK, in partnership with the abrdn Financial Fairness Trust, the Resolution Foundation is hosting an event to debate and answer these questions. Following a presentation of the report’s key highlights, we will hear from leading experts on what policymakers can do to enable people to save more, especially those on the lowest incomes.
Read the report: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/isa-isa-baby/ 
View the event slides: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/saving-savings/